Thucydides is considered the “father” of history because of his book “The History of the Peloponnesian War”, which he wrote in the 5th century. Besides describing the war itself, in which he was an active participant, he also describes the context and behind-the-scenes political manoeuvres, portraits both sides of the conflict, and makes other considerations. The book is not finished, but the story of this war is known. In a nutshell, the Peloponnesian War was a conflict between a declining power (Sparta, home of the famous 300) and an emerging power (Athens). They were both fighting for world domination, which, in this case, was Greece.

Graham Allison studied Thucydides’ book and compared what was written there with other similar conflicts. Then, he coined the term “Thucydides’ Trap” to explain the phenomenon theoretically (which is to say, academically). His goal was to understand how the rising of China could impact the world and lead to a war with the USA. The conclusions were presented in two TED Talks: one in 2018 and the other in 2021. Graham Allison was born in the USA, thus, a national of the current challenged world power, but he has been working with Chinese academics to develop the concept and apply it.

The question Graham Allison posed was: is war inevitable in the fight for world domination? And the answer is: no. Looking at the last 500 years, he concluded that 4 out of 16 confrontations of this kind did not end in war. Will this be the case between the USA and China? Nobody knows. The USA seems to want the war, but China does not. The USA does not want to lose their dominant position in the world, but will they manage it? The truth is: no empire ever survived. They all ended at some point.

Maybe the most original solution to avoid war was the one found between the Kingdom of Portugal (the declining power) and the Kingdom of Spain (the rising power) in the 15th century. The Age of Discovery had been initiated by the Portuguese at the beginning of the 15th century and the Spaniards soon followed them. Both Kingdoms were competing for routes and even for captains to lead expeditions to what would come to be “the new world”. After tough diplomatic negotiations, the Treaty of Tordesillas was signed in 1494. It basically divided the whole world into two parts. This was only applied to “newly found” lands (basically, everywhere outside Europe). Obviously, native people were not consulted and the other European powers soon would contest this bilateral agreement.

The line separating the world was established based on the map of the known world. For example, Brazil had not been “discovered” yet and “luckily” fell under Portuguese domain (some say the Portuguese knew about it before signing the Treaty). Before the Age of Discovery, the known world for Europeans was basically Europe and North Africa, which was what Romans tried to dominate. Beyond that, “there would be dragons”. “Here be dragons” is an expression it is believed was written on old maps to indicate a land that was unexplored and unknown. Little evidence of the veracity of this exists, but what is certain is that maps would often include images of monsters to mark uncharted places.

Usually, domination of the world means a State taking land from the known territories around its initial borders. The image we see in films of one evil mastermind, plotting ways to rule us all and surrounded by loyal followers who do whatever he/she commands, is very far from the truth. However, one man did it. Alexander, the Great, was a restless man who wanted to explore (and govern) all land. He started in Macedonia, passed Greece and Turkey and went down to Egypt. Then, he came back up, and continued through Iraq until he reached India. There, he wanted to keep going, but his army said enough. Climate and geographic conditions made the progression too painful.

Geography matters for matters of world domination, as world leaders (past and current) are well aware. The Chinese general Sun Tzu wrote in his book “The Art of War” how geography, climate, and demographics must be taken into consideration for a successful win in each battle. Invasions, for example, are easier in flatlands (like those in Ukraine) than if one has to overcome a mountain rage (Iran is surrounded by mountains). That is what Tim Marshall explains in his books about geopolitics: “Prisoners of Geography” and “The Power of Geography”.

Let’s take a look at the case of Russia, mentioned by Tim Marshall in the first book. The Rus people initially settled around Kiev and the Dnipro River, but, after being invaded by the Mongols from the south and the east, moved their capital to Moscow. As their land had been founded on a plain, it was highly vulnerable to other invasions (which happened several times for centuries). They realized that the best option was to expand their territory. This is called “strategic depth”: the longer the enemy would have to “walk” from the border to the capital, the further away their supply lines are and the more defensive lines they would have to overcome. This was a lesson that Napoleon’s French army and Hitler’s German army learned the hard way when they decided to invade Russia. Not only did they have to “walk” a very long distance, they also had to deal with the weather, especially snow or mud. This was the “west front”. In the meantime, to avoid invasions from the east and the south, the Russians conquered the Siberia region, thus eliminating the Mongols’ threat (or any other threat from that part of the world). In the north, there was the Arctic, so nothing to worry about (yet). Russia may not rule the world, but it is currently the biggest country in the world and definitely has a huge influence on East Europe and Asia.

Just as Portugal and Spain divided the world in two, so Russia (then the Soviet Union, integrating many other countries nearby) and the USA also divided their influence in two throughout the world. If there was a conflict, the Soviet Union would support one side and the USA would support the other side. When in peace, the countries would be an ally whether to one great power or to the other. Therefore, each great power dominated half the world.

The Cold War was prolific in books, films, and TV series (back then and nowadays still) about State espionage, world domination, end of the world, or the hero who saves the world of total destruction at the last minute. The films of James Bond were (and are) probably the most famous and had all of these ingredients. They were based on the books of Ian Fleming, a former MI6 secret agent who was in active duty during World War II. Based on himself and his work, he wrote 12 novels and 2 short stories where James Bond is the lone hero who fights against the evil organization SPECTRE. Started as a relatively small terrorist organization, at some point the goal became to dominate the world. Obviously, it was defeated by… James Bond!

Then, the Soviet Union fell and the USA became the indisputable ruler of the world… Indisputable? Well, not so fast. There have been many countries wishing to overthrow it. As all Empires before it, the USA Empire is supported by a mighty military force, which imposes the country’s will everywhere, crushing those who stand in their way. Yet, there are still people (or States) daring to defy them.

We can see a shift in books, films, and TV series. Now, the “bad guys” are no longer Russians. Now, they are Arabic and Chinese. The focus has changed as well. We see more terrorist attacks, sabotage acts, and, especially, cyber threats. Contrary to what happened in the Cold War, there is no need to have human spies in the enemy country. Everything goes online and the “new spies” do not need to leave their home. Today, world domination is cyber dominance and warfare is “hybrid warfare”. Most of the time, “normal” people do not see it at all and the perpetrators can easily deny their wrongdoings. The war that is actually “seen” is mainly made with drones, which can be remotely controlled. So, nowadays, it is not enough to have a mighty military force and physically invade the surrounding territories. Besides an Army to dominate the land, you need a Navy to dominate the seas, an Air Force to dominate airspace… and an excellent cybersecurity department to dominate the virtual world.

China has understood this a long time ago. It has not only heavily invested in technology, but also in the military forces. Their focus is on trade, establishing partnerships with countries from every continent. President Xi Jinping has repeatedly said that China does not want to dominate the world, China wants a multipolar world living in peace and where countries can work together for the benefit of humankind. Naturally, China is making great profits from their trading deals… Since 1978, when they decided to open the country to international trade, China’s economic and social evolution has left the world in astonishment. It is still a communist country, but it has learned how to play the capitalist rules for their own benefit. Little by little, they have been gaining ground in other countries’ economies, like ninjas. No one saw them coming. Or, better yet, they did see them, but they thought they would submit to the ruling power. They did not.

President Donald Trump, who took office in January this year, has declared a (trade) war with China. Not so explicitly, but that is his goal. He is cleaning all other matters to focus on this particular subject. Graham Allison often quotes Thucydides on this: “It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable”. Is the USA afraid of the rise of China? If you ask them, they would answer “no, the USA is afraid of nothing and no one”. But still, they want to bring down China just in case they might think they can overthrow the USA as the world master. China has been preparing itself for this combat for many years and the odds, as we can conclude from history, are against the USA.